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What is Global Warming?: Climate Change Projections : Impacts for Australia : Impacts for the NT

COOLfact:

Carbon dioxide for planet Earth is like salt for us.
We cannot live without it, but too much is poison.

Adapted from an information sheet on global warning (also known as climate change or the greenhouse effect) produced by the Environment Centre of the Northern Territory

What is Global Warming?

Global warming, also known as climate change, is occurring because levels of key greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) are rising as a direct result of human activity. In particular, rapid increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) have occurred in the last 150 years because of an increase in the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. Landclearing has also made a significant contribution to the build up of greenhouse gases.

These gases are like a 'doona' keeping the Earth warm. Radiation from the Sun, which has been reflected off the surface of the Earth, is prevented from completing its outward journey back into space.

As we put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere it causes a 'double doona' effect, with serious environmental consequences. During the 20th century, the Earth warmed by about 0.6°C in response to this rising greenhouse pollution, with the1990's being by far the warmest decade on record. Australia warmed by 0.7°C from 1910-1999. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) has said that this rate of change is significantly faster than what would have occurred naturally.

Since 1950, with more cars on the roads, more factories and more electricity generation, greenhouse
gas emissions have accelerated dramatically. Australia has one of the highest rates of greenhouse gas
emissions per capita in the world. At current rates of increase, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
could more than double by the end of this century.

Climate Change Projections

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international body of over 5000 scientists, predicts that unless greenhouse gas pollution is substantially reduced we can expect a further increase in global temperature of between 1.4 and 5.8°C by 2100 (relative to 1990). The CSIRO made very similar climate predictions for Australia. By 2070 average annual temperatures are likely to increase by between 1 and 6°C over large areas of thecontinent.

It should be pointed out that these projections do not take account of specific measures that might be
undertaken to reduce greenhouse gases. It is our actions that will largely determine whether the actual
temperature in 70 years time is closer to the top or bottom of the predicted range. The 1997 Kyoto
Protocol, which sets emissions targets for industrialised countries, is seen by many in the international
community as an important first step along the road to a stabilised climate.

Impacts for Australia

A temperature change of a few degrees might not seem like much but very small changes can have huge impacts on the planet's physical processes and the life cycle of almost all living things – including humans. Exotic animal and weed species that are more able to adapt to climate change will proliferate at the expense of less adaptable Australian native species. There is likely to be an increased risk of forest fires in many parts of Australia, alpine habitats are likely to be diminished in size and rivers are expected to experience lower flows in areas of decreased rainfall. Coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, already a problem, is expected to worsen.

There will be potentially serious health and economic impacts for people as well:

Farmers will need to adapt to vastly different agricultural conditions, including water shortages in
drought-prone areas.
Climate-related deaths from extreme weather events are likely to rise.
There will be rising insurance premiums as more and more communities, particularly in rural
and remote Australia, are affected by droughts or disastrous flooding and severe storms.
Beachfront housing will come under particular threat from rising sea levels, which the IPCC
predicts will rise by between 0.8 to 8cm per decade over the course of the century.

Impacts for the Northern Territory

According to a report by the CSIRO commissioned by the NT Government, some of the potential impacts of climate change for the Top End include:

The temperature in the Northern Territory may rise from 0.2 to 2.2°C by 2030 and 0.8 to 7.2°C by 2070.
Changes in extreme temperatures are predicted.
The Darwin region is likely to experience an increase in Dry season rainfall, while the rest of the Territory is likely to experience less rain overall.
An increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones and storm surges.
Sea levels may rise 5-15cm by 2030 and 10-15cm by 2070 which will have impacts on coastal settlements, mangroves and wetlands.
Impacts on our health include increases in heat stress, injuries related to floods, cases of diarrhoea requiring hospitalization and risk of Dengue fever.
Temperature changes and changes to the length of the Dry season will have severe impacts on some species.

(Source: www.nreta.nt.gov.au/whatwedo/greenhouse/documents/pdf/ntclimatechange.pdfntclimatechange.pdf)

How do scientists think climate change will affect the NT?